StartDate: March 31, 2023
I was reading a history article the other day. It was about the downfall of society and had all of the familiar concepts. Here are some of the highlights, or perhaps lowlights. See if these ring a bell.
GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION
Here in Los Angeles, we seem to regularly have a council person getting out of prison, one going in to prison, and or one being indicted for corruption. All in a state where “behest-ed” gifts makes graft fairly legal. Nationally, members of Congress, or their spouses, are known for having exceptional success as investors in industries they regulate. Lobbyists seem to have great influence and can end up in high level positions in government.
STRING OF MILITARY LOSSES
While flawed in many ways, America’s military endeavors may have reached their finest hour in WWII, fighting to save western civilization. Since then things have not been so successful.
Korea was a draw. Though an important one. I have seen S. Korea and it is a gem. I have read that N.Korea is perhaps the most impoverished and totalitarian state in the world. So at least a partial victory. The war began in 1950. Active battles ended in a truce in 1953. But in theory, and occasionally in practice, the conflict remains.
Vietnam’s conflicts began with France in the 1940’s and 1950’s and were picked up by the United States in the 1960’s and 1970’s. Tens of thousands of soldiers were killed. Lives were forever altered. It ended badly and people in the south of Vietnam were severely punished.
Afghanistan and Iraq were different beasts. Afghanistan has a history of exhausting empires. The Soviet Union spent a decade trying to control it only to suffer terrible casualties and ultimately fail. The American intervention after the 9-11 attacks provided a period of time where women could study and work, and all could have more freedoms. But it never developed a stable leadership and the catastrophically botched departure in 2021 left a heavily armed Taliban and a generation of American soldiers wondering what they fought for. Iraq no longer has the single all-powerful dictator. But it is also in severe dysfunction.
LOSS OF CIVIC PRIDE
I wrote in another post “Where Is Your Flag?”(https://notcommonsense.com/where-is-your-flag) [1] about being able to only count a handful of flags out on Memorial Day. Of all the national holidays it is the one about young people taking an oath to, if needed, give their lives to defend the Constitution for a starting pay of less than flipping burgers in California. How can it be too much to display a banner to those who served and died? But it seems people are willing to take the day off and go to the beach without a moment of remembrance of them or respect for their families.
INABILITY TO RECRUIT SOLDIERS
Given the above discussion of disastrous wars and loss of national pride it should not be surprising that it is getting harder to recruit young people to enlist in the military. But it is worse than that. In 1944 the D-Day invasion began the final phase of WWII in Europe. It was fought by soldiers largely between the ages of 17 and 24. In that time everyone without major disability, i.e. missing limbs, blind, etc., was drafted if they had not already volunteered.
Recently studies have been made to determine how many of our present generation of 17 to 24 year olds would be eligible for draft if needed [2]. Sadly more than 3/4 would be unable to serve given reasonable standards. They are ineligible because of obesity, criminal background, lack of GED level education, or drug issues, legal or otherwise. Of those that could qualify, many are students who have been brainwashed into hating the country that provides all their benefits and pays their debt. Others who do want to serve, and can, were told that they are unfit because of micro-aggression. That is an odd complaint for a job that involves fighting wars. If they made it in, they were told that their priorities were pronouns and allegedly “green” technology.
(P.S. Some good news here. Since 2024 recruiting has surged and fitness standards are being elevated. Winning is now a priority.)
FINANCIAL CRISES AND OVERSPENDING
In case you are too young or forgot, our economic system had a massive collapse in 2008-2009 from giving bad housing loans that were never going to be repaid. The Biden administration reassigned billions of dollars in student loans from the borrowers to the taxpayers, many of whom are blue collar workers who have never been given any assistance and are being taxed and regulated out of business. The national debt as of early 2024 is above $34 trillion [3]. For most of our history the annual budget topped out at $4 trillion or less. Next year, 2025, payments required to service the debt are to be just shy of $1 trillion [3] This will increase with the further expansion of debt. Per the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
“In fiscal years 2024 through 2026, interest payments will exceed the amount that the federal government spends on Medicare. …..In fiscal year 2025, the federal government will spend more on interest than on non-defense discretionary, which includes funding for transportation, veterans, education, health, international affairs, natural resources and environment, general science and technology, general government, and more“ [4].
A financial advisor once told me that the one truly bipartisan value is “spending money we don’t have”
LOSS OF TRADITIONAL VALUES
One hardly knows where to begin. But if I make any suggestions I will be accused of all forms of “isms” and “phobias.” I have many phobias. But these aren’t them. I will simply allow you to reflect on the loss of national identity, faith, work ethic, etc. It is in no way universal, but it is a more prevalent belief that only self matters.
TAXES AND INFLATION, WIDENING THE GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR.
In the elite coastal regions of CA and NY there is both great wealth and great struggle. It is toughest for the working poor and seniors on fixed incomes. Sadly these regions often impose conditions that make it harder. CA sales tax (varying slightly from city to city) comes in at just about 10%. This tithe is on top of a vast array of taxes (income, vehicle, and property – which is passed on to rent, etc.) It is not based on income so it disproportionately hurts the poor who spend a larger share of their budget on the basics. The same is true with the catastrophically high fuel taxes. Utilities have some subsidies for low income households, but stores and gas stations do not.
Unsustainable minimum wages help a few who hold on to their jobs but hurt the 10’s of thousands who lose them, the neighbors who lose access to stores, and the poor retirees whose benefits do not increase similarly as costs are passed on to the consumers.
Unnecessary and expensive regulations add so much to the cost of building in CA that hopeful buyers cannot get in to an entry level home or condominium. Perhaps mass exodus due to poor quality of life will bring costs down. But if precedent is a guide, the state will simply add more regulations fees, permits, and other costs to make up the difference until none but people with 7-figure incomes and their staff will remain.
OVER-RELIANCE ON FOREIGN LABOR
Bringing people from abroad to help fill out the labor pool can be useful to some degree. But mass importation of poor, homeless, low skilled migrants is simply a return to the Middle Ages. For a decade or more economists have been writing about California being a model of Neo-feudalism [6]. The working class, who can never own, laboring on the estates of the landed gentry. Each person who comes puts upward pressure on the cost of entry level housing and downward pressure on wages, particularly the black market jobs paid in cash.
THE WALL
Historically, at some points, mass migration has required the erection of a wall to stem the tide.
THE WEALTHY FLEEING
Jeff Bezos was once the richest man in the world. He is still in the top 5. On any given day the stock market could put him back there. He has recently sold a few billions of dollars in shares of his company, Amazon. It is worth noting that this happened after he moved from Washington, a high tax state, to Florida, where there is no state income tax. There has been a mass exodus of individuals and major companies from CA, NY, WA, etc. to Texas, Florida, and Tennessee. There are also stories of the small and moderate businesses who move because they cannot survive multiple break-ins a month, constant retail theft, and physical threat to both employees and customers. Some have resorted to putting merchandise in locked cases, requiring staff to escort you to products. Eventually they pull up stakes and move on. It is no way to live.
RISE OF AN EASTERN EMPIRE
Over decades China was given many of our manufacturing jobs [7]. We learned how painful that was during COVID when it became very difficult to get necessary medicines and supplies. Their military is vastly larger than ours. Perhaps not more capable, but size can matter in war.
What does history tell us?
The subtitles I used here came from, with minor variation, an article in “history.com“. The title of the article is:
“8 Reasons Why Rome Fell: find out why one of history’s most legendary empires finally came crashing down.” By Evan Andrews , Feb 10, 2023 [8].
Per the article, Rome had losses against foreign tribes, faced a rising Byzantium to the east, depended too much on foreign slave labor, was forced to build Hadrian’s wall to manage the remote border, and struggled to recruit legions from the Roman citizenry.
Historians ascribe 476 AD as the date of “The Fall of the Roman Empire.” It didn’t all happen in a day, or a week, or a year but it was the beginning of the end.
The Roman Empire lasted for roughly 500 years.
As of this writing The United States of America is a nation of less than 250 years.
Where are we in our timeline?
What will history make of our story?
REFERENCES
[1] https://notcommonsense.com/where-is-your-flag/
[2] Esper, Dr. Mark T,. “Long, slow decline of the US military’s all-volunteer force puts America in danger,”Obesity, drug use, health problems, crime and academic issues jeopardize US military recruitment”, September 19, 2022, https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/long-slow-decline-us-military-all-volunteer-force-puts-america-danger#&_intcmp=hp1bt4,hp1bt
[3] U.S. publicly held debt 2013-2024, Published by Statista Research Department, Mar 8, 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/273294/public-debt-of-the-united-states-by-month/#:~:text=U.S.%20publicly%20held%20debt%202013%2D2024&text=In%20February%202024%2C%20the%20public,around%2032.6%20trillion%20U.S.%20dollars
[4] “What is the National Debt Costing Us”, Peter G.Peterson Foundation, February 9, 2024, https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2024/02/what-is-the-national-debt-costing-us#:~:text=The%20Congressional%20Budget%20Office%20(CBO,to%20%241.6%20trillion%20in%202034
[5] Hoskin, Paul, “USDA finds Americans spending more on food since 1991”, February 27, 2024, https://www.yahoo.com/news/usda-finds-americans-spending-more-230621821.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGZhW8kwhYEgFB3BxlTXlLKhkqKtT3cRdD9Na4iHjKRqrz8i16HT6HO0zRp5dc_MzqHoQkxk4SMoXGO-SZTbzU_ZW_URnIalDZv80mBG8QJWHF0yIk6aEe6WdV7aib0yd7PIpoOcUpT7I_WX-R3Arlzubzpf42Jg52u4vC8KsiMa
[6] Kotkin, Joel, “The neofeudal structure of California’s tech-oligarchic economy (2)”, October 30, 2013, https://blog.p2pfoundation.net/the-neofeudal-structure-of-californias-tech-oligarchic-economy-2/2013/10/30
[7] Heritage, Andrew, “Job Loss By Metro Area Shows Devastation From China Shock”, September 20, 2023, https://prosperousamerica.org/job-loss-by-metro-area-shows-devastation-from-china-shock/#:~:text=The%20trade%20deficit%20with%20China,million%20manufacturing%20jobs%20since%202001.&text=hundreds%20of%20communities.&text=imports
[8] Andrews, Evan, “Reasons Why Rome Fell”, history.com, February 10, 2023, https://www.history.com/news/8-reasons-why-rome-fell#:~:text=Finally%2C%20in%20476%2C%20the%20Germanic,Empire%20suffered%20its%20death%20blow