Start Date: August 20, 2022
It was sometime around 1990 that I first encountered the term “organic” on a restaurant menu. Having taken an entry level organic chemistry class I think I asked my dining companion if the alternative was “plastic” food. But it seems that when it comes to menus and grocery stores the term “organic” implies a number of other things, not the least of which is that you will be paying more. With produce it generally implies that no synthetic fertilizers or pesticides have been used.
For most of human history fertilizer was all natural animal manure and agriculture was “organic”.
Then in 1909 a gentleman named Fritz Haber devised a method to synthesize fertilizer. It is considered one of the greatest achievements of the 20th century [1], [2] . There can be some concerns of overuse affecting the water table, but the plant doesn’t really care where it gets its nutrients. It takes what it needs and leaves the rest. Over time use of manmade fertilizer became the norm.
A century onward it has become fashionable for things to be “natural”. Some of this may be a reflexive contrast from the mid-20th century when all things space-age were the rage. Formica, Tupperware, TV dinners, and Tang, “the drink of astronauts”, captured our collective imagination. But sometime in the 1970’s society began to be concerned about the pollution associated with an increasingly industrialized world. People wanted to go back to simpler times, seemingly cleaner ways of doing things.
Enter Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He is, well, was until recently, the President of Sri Lanka. For both environmental and economic reasons he chose to ban agricultural chemicals in the spring of 2021. If you have ever slammed on the brakes and jerked the steering wheel while driving on ice you know that it tends to end badly. This sudden change of direction didn’t go so well either.
If you are going to redefine an entire nation’s food production and most of its economy you want to look at all the scenarios. For instance you might ask, why did Fritz Haber invent synthetic fertilizer? We tend to want to ascribe greed to all industry, but even greed tends to require some practicality, and in fact there was a very important phenomenon taking place.
The adage that “necessity is the mother of invention” is sometimes true, and in this case very much so. If you look at a chart of human population spanning from 10,000 BCE to 2020 you can see that almost everyone who has ever lived seems to have been born in the last century [3] .Suddenly, in the 20th century, the world’s farms needed to go from feeding a 1-2 billion people to 8 billion people. What had worked in the past was tied to the past in that it was good enough for a certain amount of crop yield. Fritz Haber to the rescue! Synthetic fertilizer yields greatly more crop than organic. Less land is needed to feed the same number of people. It is estimated that 40% of the world’s population would not exist if not for Mr. Haber’s invention [1].
Thus Sri Lanka supported over 20 million people and was able to export food. Until 2021. Then, in short order, the chemical ban led to a devastating reduction in yield of the rice crop. Tea, a leading export, was similarly decimated. Major crops such as corn and sorghum are also affected. A farmer, absent pesticides, lost his entire melon crop. Prices have soared. Some farmers have no crop to sell and will keep what they have in hopes of being able to feed their families. Others have abandoned their farms to try and get jobs. Many families are down to 2 meals per day. The United Nations reported in July 2022 that 6.3 million of the nation’s 21 million citizens, do not have adequate food supply. The president has been forced into exile. [ 4], [5], [6]. A formerly functioning country is now devastated economically and suffering starvation.
How could this happen when the basic facts have been known for a century? Maybe it was seeing all of the climate celebrities spend their lives in private jets, yachts, limousines, and SUVs that made him think you can do as they say and still live as they live. But across a society the laws of nature will hold up. They gave up something invented out of necessity and now they are suffering and will need years to recover.
So while we certainly have room to accommodate some organic farming on small scale, there will have to be drastic changes in either the process, or reduction in population, for it to completely replace the current farming methods. Fritz Haber won a Nobel Prize for his invention. If it is time to move on toward a different approach to agriculture, it will require similar commitment to innovative research, not just slamming the brakes.
POSTSCRIPT
Let us hope that this is a cautionary tale. It doesn’t even require learning from history. It is happening now. But in an era when people claim globalism, yet live in self absorption, is Sri Lanka too far away to notice? Is the answer not the one that is in fashion? Sadly we may see this experiment play out on wider scale. While the Sri Lankan leadership made the direct decision to seal their fate, there are other international plights and policies that may lead to the same outcome more globally. Russia and Ukraine are responsible for large amounts of fertilizer components. The principle tragedy of the Russian invasion is, of course, the death and maiming of innocents. But an aside is the effect on Russia’s exports of fertilizer. Supplies are down and prices are up. [7]. Like the proverbial “canary in the coal mine” the poorest populations may be the first to see worsening food insecurity. However it seems likely that food prices will be inflated globally.
There is one more step on the downward spiral which is still, to some degree, optional. Natural gas. Natural gas is not just an efficient, relatively clean, and affordable way keep you warm in the winter and cook your food. It is essential to the production of synthetic fertilizers. [8]. Estimates suggest that roughly 70% of the cost of fertilizer is the price of natural gas [9].
Much as the world is no longer receiving fertilizer from Russia, its inventory of natural gas, to which the EU has become so dependent, are not available as they once were. Limited supply and high prices will force very hard choices. Freeze this winter or go hungry next year. It is likely that Europe will deal with the imminent crises of winter and hope for a miracle. Even American farmers are speaking out about the possibility of food shortages due to environmental and energy policies that increase cost of operation and decrease crop harvests. [10], [11]. So when you hear of banning natural gas remember that for now, no natural gas, no fertilizer, low crop yields, and finally hunger and starvation.
In Greek mythology Icarus flew with wings made of feathers and candle wax. Ignoring his father’s advice, he flew so high that the sun melted the wax causing him to fall to his death. Before we succumb to the hubris of abandoning the advances of the last century, we may have to ask what life was like without them and why population has skyrocketed since their discovery. To quote the Bible: “Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall” [12].
REFERENCES
[1] Pollan, Michael, “What’s Eating America”, Smithsonian, July 2006, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/whats-eating-america-121229356/
[2] Daley, Jason, “The Corn of the Future is Hundreds of Years Old and Makes Its Own Mucus”, Smithsonian, August 2018, https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/corn-future-hundreds-years-old-and-makes-its-own-mucus-180969972/
[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006502/global-population-ten-thousand-bc-to-2050/
[4] Li, Shan, and Wen, Phillip, “Sri Lanka’s Farmers Struggle to Feed the Country—and Themselves”, Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/sri-lankas-farmers-struggle-to-feed-the-countryand-themselves-11660913403
[5] Paul, Jackson, “Sri Lanka’s Food Crisis Is Man-Made—and Demonstrates the Danger of Faux Environmentalism”, August 4, 2022, https://fee.org/articles/sri-lanka-s-food-crisis-is-man-made-and-demonstrates-the-danger-of-faux-environmentalism/?gclid=CjwKCAjwtKmaBhBMEiwAyINuwH-vj0zm3OQ15I1QphxFttOEOhOKy008dnIAP3OZVTgWOb6HGgO59hoCkJoQAvD_BwE
[6] Ellis_Peterson, Hannah “‘It will be hard to find a farmer left’: Sri Lanka reels from rash fertiliser ban”, April 20, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/20/sri-lanka-fertiliser-ban-president-rajapaksa-farmers-harvests-collapse
[7] Jenkins, Suzanne, “How the Russia-Ukraine War Helped Fuel Record Fertilizer Prices”, October 4, 2022, https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/oct/russia-ukraine-war-record-fertilizer-prices
[8] Heitkamp, Heidi,“You can’t Eat Without Natural Gas”, Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-eat-without-natural-gas-un-world-food-programme-prices-costs-supply-climate-change-ukraine-fertilizer-11664395485?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h
[9] Rapoza, Kenneth, “Europe’s Other Crisis: Fertilizer Shortage For Farming”, Forbes, September 19, 2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2022/09/19/europes-other-crisis-fertilizer-shortage-for-farming/?sh=5b76e9bd6ddc
[10] Sahakian, Teny, “Climate change proposals putting American food supply at risk, says diary farmer”, https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-food-supply-at-risk-amid-global-crackdown-on-agriculture-in-the-name-of-climate-change-dairy-farmer-says
[11] Boyer, Jim, “Opinion: Biden undermines farmers after warning of food shortages”, DesMoine Register, August 13, 2022, https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/iowa-view/2022/08/13/biden-undermines-farmers-after-warning-food-shortages/10294920002/
[12] King James Bible, Proverbs 16:18